Now that combat troops are leaving Iraq, the Obama administration is looking forward to the first troop withdrawals from Afghanistan. July 2011 will see the first withdrawals, but Defense Secretary Robert Gates maintains that initial troop reductions will only be part of a lengthy transition process.[1] President Obama understands that the process will be lengthy, but if he truly believes that “America's vital interests” are at stake in Afghanistan, he must be willing to make a long-term, substantial commitment to military operations in that country.[2] The current strategy being implemented by the American military and the multiple causes of instability in Afghanistan necessitate combat operations that could continue for years.
In an effort to attain stability in Afghanistan, the military is using population-centric counterinsurgency, a strategy that “is essentially defensive and seeks to deprive the adversary of control of the population”.[3] This type of counterinsurgency “provides human security to the population, where they live, 24 hours a day”.[4] Because the Taliban draws its freedom of action from the people of Afghanistan, it is necessary to sever the connection between the insurgent group and its population base. This entails defensive military operations as well as economic and political reforms that lead to less corrupt, more responsive governance. Successful counterinsurgency in Afghanistan will “break the connection between the insurgents and the population…and thereby ‘hardwire’ the enemy out of the environment”.[5]
Providing virtually omnipresent security in Afghanistan, a geographically harsh country of nearly thirty million people, will require a significant number of soldiers and a long-term commitment. Although population-centric counterinsurgency is a defensive strategy, it will likely lead to increased violence as the Taliban attempts to restore its connection to the population. For this reason, the American presence in Afghanistan cannot be allowed to wane until the Taliban has been marginalized and the people are secure. Counterinsurgency in Afghanistan cannot succeed due to an abbreviated timetable.
It should be noted that the problems in Afghanistan go far beyond the Taliban. “The activity of globally focused terrorist organizations such as al Qa’ida, interference by neighbors, institutional weakness, a rapidly expanding narcotics trade, a weak economy, and a lack of confidence…in their government,” all contribute to extreme instability.[6] If America plans to maintain a significant presence in Afghanistan until the Afghan government can provide security and justice, then July 2011 will come and go without any significant troop withdrawals. To achieve the elusive goal of stability in Afghanistan, President Obama will need to authorize a prolonged troop commitment and a continuing partnership with the Afghan government. A half-hearted commitment to Afghanistan’s security will not allow for any strategic gains. At the same time, President Obama and America's military leaders must remember that, "It's not in our interest for the Middle East to be destabilized as part of a historic, century-long war with Islamic fundamentalism."[7]
[1] Oliphant, James. “Gates says withdrawal from Afghanistan to be limited at first.” 1 August 2010. Los Angeles Times. http://www.latimes.com/sc-dc-gates-afghanistan-20100801,0,6441885.story
[2] CNN Wire Staff. “Afghan war remains 'absolutely essential,' Obama says.” 28 March 2010. CNN. http://www.cnn.com/2010/POLITICS/03/28/obama.afghanistan/index.html
[3] Kissinger, Henry. Diplomacy. New York: Simon and Schuster Paperbacks, 1994. p. 660
[4] Kilcullen, David. The Accidental Guerrilla. New York: Oxford University Press, Inc., 2009. p. 266
[5] Kilcullen, David. Counterinsurgency. New York: Oxford University Press, Inc., 2010. p. 10
[6] Kilcullen. The Accidental Guerrilla. p. 46
[7] Brzezinski, Zbigniew, et. al. America and the World. New York: Basic Books, 2008. p.60
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