From Lemons to Lemonade: How Israel can benefit from a nuclearized Iran

The introduction of a nuclearized Iran will fundamentally alter Israel's security strategy as well as the balance of power in the Middle East. Israel has enjoyed few conventional military threats since the end of the First Gulf War, but a nuclearized Iran presents another unconventional threat with which Israel must contend (in addition to terrorism). However, a nuclearized Iran will present invaluable opportunities to Israel, and may improve security in the Middle East.

Nuclear weapons alter the behavior of states. While they may facilitate low levels of violence [1], they are largely deterrent. Thus, the likelihood of Israeli-Iranian conflict will decrease with the development of Iranian nuclear capabilities. Furthermore, the incessant provocation of Israel and Israeli supporters by Ahmadinejad may cease, as nuclear weapons seem to induce heightened rationality in their owners and those threatened by their existence [2].

Israel must take advantage of the nuclearization of Iran by developing partnerships with previously unfriendly Middle Eastern states. The greatest potential lies with Saudi Arabia. Both Israelis and Saudis feel a legitimate threat from Ahmadinejad; this presents the opportunity to forge an agreement over common interests between the two states. Israel's attitude toward Saudi Arabia appears to be changing as no complaints have been made about the $60B U.S. Saudi-American arms deal [3].

Of course, Israeli-Arab tension will remain at the forefront of Israeli security, but a nuclearized Iran may push Israel to the bargaining table and make serious concessions in order to achieve greater security and stability in the region. While this does mean Israel probably will have to give up some things such as land and the ability to act unilaterally in many cases - the benefits of regional security far outweigh short term costs.

Ultimately, this points to a state known as "nuclear peace" [4]. The enhanced sense of rationality which will be induced upon Iranian leadership with the possession of nuclear weapons, the opportunity to generate partnerships with powerful Middle East actors, and regional stability created through responsible proliferation will all benefit Israel and improve its state security.

[1] Jervis, Robert. "The Utility of Nuclear Deterrence." International Politics: Enduring Concepts and Contemporary Issues. 'Comp'. Robert J. Art and Robert Jervis. New York: Addison-Wesley Educational Publishers Inc., 2000. Print

[2] Waltz, Kenneth. "The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: More May Be Better." Conflict After the Cold War: Arguments on Causes of War and Peace. 'Comp'. Richard K. Betts. Needleham Heights: Allyn & Bacon, 1994. Print

[3] Flaherty, Anne. "$60B arms deal with Saudi Arabia goes through." Washington Post. 19 Nov 2010. Print

[4] Jervis, Robert. "The Utility of Nuclear Deterrence." International Politics: Enduring Concepts and Contemporary Issues. 'Comp'. Robert J. Art and Robert Jervis. New York: Addison-Wesley Educational Publishers Inc., 2000. Print